Dominance has often been the championship storyline for Team Penske during the Next Gen era, but disappointment is almost guaranteed Sunday over 500 laps at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
And possibly a double dose.
Call it the Penske Predicament.
The only team to have won the Cup championship since the 2022 debut of the series' current race car could be locked out of the Championship 4 for the first time in four years. That cold reality arrives a season after the team's dynamic duo of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney claimed half of the championship field and finished 1-2 in the title race at Phoenix Raceway.
Their thunder has been stolen in 2025 by Joe Gibbs Racing and its enormously successful playoff push - winning five of eight races and clinching two of the four title-eligible berths with Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe.
On the flip side, Team Penske's stumbles have been just as befuddling.
A trendy championship pick because of its trademark mastery in optimizing setups for the playoffs, especially on the shorter flat tracks that comprise the final two races, the patented Penske long game has come up short this season.
With the exception of New Hampshire Motor Speedway - where Blaney earned the team's only 2025 playoff win to date and Logano led the most laps in fourth - this championship run has lacked the extra gear and efficient execution that are hallmarks of Roger Penske's detail-oriented organizations.
Talladega Superspeedway exemplified those struggles. It's normally a track where Penske machines are in complete control of the draft when at the front for the final 50 miles.
But with Blaney leading on a restart with 18 scheduled laps remaining, and Logano lined up behind with a squadron of Fords at the ready, the finishing kick got fumbled in a stunning fade. Neither Penske Mustang was in the top 15 at the checkered flag.
Paul Wolfe, crew chief for Logano, said the reason was as simple as the Fords losing their gains at superspeedways to the Toyotas and Chevrolets.
"It's hard to keep those advantages for very long," Wolfe said.
Penske has still tried to maintain its razor's edge in Year 4 of the Next Gen.
Wolfe noted that without any recent major rules changes, the competition gap keeps thinning to where the difference between contending for wins and racing for 15th is small. Both Logano and Blaney have suffered multiple tire failures during the playoffs as the team has searched for ways to stay ahead.
"That's just trying to find that little bit more," Wolfe said. "That's what we're down to, pushing those limits without going over them, and we've had our struggles there a little bit here in the playoffs with that."
Logano, who won the title in 2022 and '24, is 38 points below the cutline. Blaney, the 2023 champion, is 47 points behind.
The No. 12 star has made the championship race the past two seasons with consecutive wins in the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville, but a three-peat for Blaney hardly will ameliorate the fact that it also would mean Logano's title defense is over.
And if Logano wins, Blaney will feel the pain.
At least one Penske contender is leaving southwest Virginia in a funk Sunday night.
"It sucks, you know one of your guys isn't going to transfer for sure," Penske competition director Travis Geisler told NBC Sports after Talladega. "We've got to figure out how to get one of them through."
There will be no shame if the opportunity for a fourth consecutive championship disappears for Penske at Martinsville. Comprised entirely of drivers from the Gibbs, Penske and Hendrick Motorsports powerhouses, this was the most elite Round of 8 in the 12-season history of the elimination playoffs.
Though the New Hampshire speed showed flashes of Penske's flat 1-mile magic, there also was some internal doubt if it would hold for two months, given that JGR's Christopher Bell and Hamlin finished 1-2 in March at Phoenix.
"I think we showed up as a group as good (at New Hampshire) as we've ever been," said Jonathan Hassler, crew chief for Blaney. "Does some of that carry over to Phoenix? Sure, but are we going to be the fastest car in every run of practice and qualifying and lead the whole race? Absolutely not. I think Gibbs were definitely stronger at Phoenix this spring than they've ever been and will be super competitive there in a couple of weeks."
It would be foolish to count out Penske from putting up a fight. Never further away from Victory Lane than a late-race restart, Logano has proven the toughest out in NASCAR's premier series. After his Talladega win, Briscoe emphasized the importance of JGR blocking out a Penske driver from advancing to Phoenix.
But there already are strong odds of that happening. Racing Insights puts the probability of qualifying for the championship showdown at 12.5% for Blaney and 6.1% for Logano.
For a team so accustomed to controlling the title race, it's a sobering situation.
And it can't be any easier knowing that Martinsville will end only half-well at best.
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